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The Gadfly Bytes --
February 21. 2006
Perception is Reality
Ernest Partridge,
February 21, 2006
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Today the many disparate crises of the past have
combined into one general systemic crisis, placing the basic structure
of the Republic at mortal risk. At the forefront of concern must be
the question: Will the Constitution of the United States survive? Is
the American state now in the midst of a transmutation in which the
217-year-old provisions for a balance of powers and popular freedoms
are being overridden and canceled? Or will defenders of the
Constitution step forward, as has happened in constitutional crises of
the past, to save the system and restore its integrity?
Jonathan Schell |
Yogi Berra said it best: “It is difficult to make predictions, especially
about the future.”
Predictions in politics rest upon two assumptions: (a) that present
trends will continue into the future, and (b) that there will be no totally
unexpected “surprises.”
Both assumptions are rarely true and both are refuted both by common sense and
by the lessons of history.
Case in point: last week’s “Texas shootout.” Until last week, the White
House routine was in motion and functioning smoothly: Bush was the public
face of the Administration, and Cheney the hand in the sock-puppet,
self-selected in 2000 to give stability, maturity and “gravitas” to the Bush
regime. Last week Cheney was exposed to the public at large as the reckless,
self-absorbed, super-annuated adolescent that his perceptive critics knew
him to be. Today the right-wing propaganda mills are up to full speed,
telling us “move along, folks, nothing to see here.” But try as they might,
the public perception of Dick Cheney will not revert to status-quo-ante.
The “present trend” of the Bush/Cheney team has been turned in a new
direction.
But Dick Cheney’s bad aim was a minor disruption, of interest to us only
because of its immediacy. Other “surprises” are well known to all of us.
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In the fall of 1958, Fidel Castro seemed to be
insignificant irritant to the regime of Fulgencio Batista in Cuba. On New
Years Day in 1959, Batista fled Cuba, and two days later Castro and his
“brigands,” marched into Havana.
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In the summer of 1963, John Kennedy’s election to a second
term appeared to be a near-certainty.
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So too, his brother Robert’s nomination at the Chicago
Democratic convention in August, 1968.
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On election day in 1964, Lyndon Johnson seemed assured of
a second term four years hence. And on election day, 1972, there was no
reason whatever to doubt that Richard Nixon would serve out a full term.
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In the early eighties, Reagan’s UN Ambassador, Jeanne
Kirkpatrick, warned us all that where communism had established its rule,
it had never retreated one square inch. And Mikhail Gorbachev, the Right
told us, was just another Communist apparatchik, like all the others –
“Khruschev with a tailored suit and a thin wife,” as George Will put it.
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In 1990 Nelson Mandela was a prisoner of the South African
apartheid regime. In 1994 he was elected President of the Republic of
South Africa.
Political upheavals are like earthquakes. Beneath a placid
landscape, stresses quietly build up until the fault ruptures, suddenly and
without warning, forever transforming the landscape.
So, is an upheaval looming ahead for the United States? Not necessarily. For
history also teaches us that democracies can descend slowly, by small
increments, into despotism. As William O. Douglas put it: “As nightfall does
not come at once, neither does oppression. In both instances, there's a
twilight where everything remains seemingly unchanged.”
Which is our future? A bang, or a whimper? Or perhaps a renaissance? We
don’t know. But the answer, to no small degree, is in the hands of us, of "we the
people."
This much seems likely: given the increasing unrest among the American
people, the accumulating evidence of GOP corruption and Administration
crimes, and the likelihood of a devastating economic setback, come September
and October this year, the political landscape will be radically different
from what it is today. It could be far worse, with an intervening catastrophic
terrorist attack followed immediately by martial law and full-fledged
fascism. On the other hand, we the people just might achieve our deliverance
from this reign of error, lies, greed, and cruelty.
The latter, hopeful, outcome may appear impossible today. But we must never
forget that every successful peoples’ liberation movement begins as an
impossible dream. (And, be sure, many such movements remain so). They then
often proceed to possibility, then probability, and finally to inevitability and
success.
The resistance to Bushism is now at the “impossible” stage; today, the
Busheviks control the ballot box and the mainstream media. Their continuing
control of the Congress and soon the Courts seems assured, and the alleged
“opposition party” is enfeebled, disorganized and compliant. To be sure, if
conditions and trends remain as they are today, and there are no
“surprises,” continued control by the GOP of all branches of government is a
certainty.
However, it is very unlikely that conditions and trends will remain as they
are, or that there will be no disrupting “surprises.” Below this controlled
and placid political and economic landscape, the stresses are accumulating.
Among them:
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More and more moderate republicans and authentic
conservatives are finally coming to realize that they share little more
with the Bush Administration and the GOP Congress than a name,
“Republican,” and an adjective, “conservative.” With the rightward shift
in US politics, traditional Republican values and policies – fiscal
responsibility, small government, local control, individual self-reliance
-- are approaching congruence with those of the Democratic party. And
genuine conservatives share with the Democrats, and in opposition to the
Bush regime, a respect for our Constitution, the balance of governmental
powers, and the rule of law.
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Similarly, many libertarians are becoming disenchanted
with the Bushevik assault on civil liberties and its flirtation with
theocracy. In fact, a recent analysis of congressional voting records has
determined that with the exception of the estimable
libertarian-republican, Ron Paul, virtually all the top voting scores
in the libertarian index
belong to House Democrats.
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Bush has lost the confidence and support of a majority of
Americans. His approval ratings have once again dropped below 40%. A
November AP-Ipsos poll found that 57% of those polled do not believe that
the Bush Administration has "high ethical standards," and the same number
say that Bush is not honest. Last month, a Gallup poll found
that 58% consider Bush's second term a failure, and 53% believe that
Bush's administration deliberately
misled the
public about Saddam's alleged WMD programs. Finally, an October
Ipsos poll found that
exactly half of
the population would want Congress to consider impeachment if Bush
lied about his reasons for going to war with Iraq
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The Religious Right is fracturing, and the moderate
Christians are becoming politically active, reminding us that Jesus
blessed the peacemakers and
condemned the
wealthy and the hypocrites. Some evangelical Christian ministers are
openly criticizing Bush’s environmental policies and expressing
concern
about global warming.
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The patience of the international community with the
neo-con’s imperial ambitions is wearing thin. And as knowledgeable
observers of international politics and economics are fully aware, the
community of nations is quite capable of
exerting considerable economic pressure
on the US government.
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Bushism is based upon and sustained by a scaffolding of
lies and deception. At long last, the public is beginning to “wise up,”
and as the Busheviks respond to public skepticism with still more lies,
their credibility crumbles, and with it their legitimacy and political
clout.
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Doubts about the validity of the election process will not
go away, despite the disparagement of the issue by the mainstream media
and the persistent indifference of the Democratic Party. More and more
jurisdictions are decertifying electronic voting devices as legal
challenges proliferate.
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The US economy is
approaching a breaking point, as the housing bubble is about to burst
followed by the bankruptcy of millions of double-mortgaged speculating
home owners. With ever-more Americans “maxing-out” their credit cards and
credit qualifications, and with the continuing decline in median
middle-class income, consumer spending is certain to stall. Nothing
provokes the American public to political action more than economic
distress.
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It is finally beginning to dawn on a few “movers and
shakers” of finance and industry that where Bush, Inc. is leading, they
should not want to follow. There are few winners in an economic
depression, least of all investors. And a country that fails to invest in
infrastructure, in scientific research, in technological development, and
in education, and which “outsources” its technical jobs, is committing
economic suicide. Savvy investors and corporate financial officers recall
that they flourished during the Clinton administration, not to mention
most Democratic
administrations.
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After five years of slavishly spewing out Bushite/GOP
propaganda, the mainstream media is losing its credibility and its
audience. The public is beginning to look to alternative sources for its
news: the foreign media, the independent press, and of course, the
internet.
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The would-be despots, Bush, Cheney and the rest, are not
very good at despotism. There is a widening charisma-gap, as these leaders
appear ever-less “commanding” and ever-more puerile, incompetent, and even
pathetic. In addition, Bush and his minions are not “deep thinkers.” They
prefer faith to science, and gut-feeling to expertise. The public is
beginning to appreciate that this administration can not bend reality to
its will, and that eventually “reality bites.”
All these factors are working to the disadvantage of the
Bush regime, thus, the sub-surface stresses are accumulating. Given the
manifest skills of the Bush propaganda machine, and the blackmail and
intimidation issuing from Karl Rove’s office, the political fault beneath
could hold fast throughout the next decade, into the Jeb Bush
Administration. Or it could rupture next month. My guess is sooner, rather
than later.
Meanwhile, the resistance is gaining in strength.
The catalytic moment for liberation movements arrives when (a) the movement
achieves self-awareness – when the dissenters look about and find that they
are not alone, and recognize that they are participants in a concerted
political force, (b) when the movement acquires effective leadership that
focuses goals and coordinates action, and (c) when leaders and followers of
the movement achieve results, albeit minor, and thus perceive that success
is achievable. This perception that success is possible is, in itself, a
formidable political force. “Perception is reality.” Si, se puede!
I opened with a warning about the unreliability of political predictions. So
I will not now hazard predictions about the State of the Union in the fall,
as the mid-term election approaches. However, I can point out some factors
that might emerge in the meantime to re-shuffle the political deck.
Election fraud: As Bush’s approval ratings continue to fall, the
economy sours, the Iraq casualty toll increases with no end in sight, the
Abramov and Plame scandals yield indictments, the defensive lies from the
White House become more transparent and desperate, opinion polls point to a
Democratic blowout in the November elections. As more and more voices are
heard to ask, “why on earth did we elect these guys?,” the public becomes
ever more receptive to the reply, “we didn’t! Those damned machines elected
them!” Then the Busheviks face a daunting dilemma: can they allow a
Democratic takeover of the Congress, and with it the power of congressional
investigation including the levers of subpoena and the threats of perjury
and contempt of Congress? Or dare they once again "jigger" the computer
programs, in the secret and unauditable ballot and compilation codes, to
assure a GOP “victory,” thus inviting a Ukrainian-style public rebellion?
The Mainstream Media: As the MSM continues to lose its audience, it
faces another dilemma: propaganda vs. profits. When the Soviet media,
state-owned and thus in no need of profits, persisted in spewing out state
propaganda, it gave rise to an underground media,
samizdat,
and an enthusiastic public audience for foreign broadcasts and publications.
In the United States today, profits are a factor, as here and there elements
of the MSM, facing competition from foreign and independent sources and the
internet, are exhibiting increasing critical independence from the GOP party
line. The opponents to Bush, Inc., need no counter-propaganda. A
healthy dose of the truth will suffice as an invaluable resource in the
struggle to bring an end to the reigning oligarchy.
Leadership: The resistance to Bushism is essentially leaderless, and
thus unfocused and disorganized. When the leaders emerge, reflecting the
values and aspirations of the resistance movement, that movement may become
a formidable force.
I am not proposing another despot to replace the ones we have. If
prospective leaders step forward with agendas alien to the followers, they
will be discarded. Successful leaders must embody the values and aspirations
of the movement. In an authentic popular
movement, communication and coordination between leaders and followers flows
in both directions. Though rebels by nature resist authority,
leadership in a resistance movement is essential, for if the movement is to
be effective, its goals must be defined and focused, and its activism
coordinated. Let’s be realistic: where would the sixties civil rights
movement be without Martin Luther King, Jr. – or, of not King himself, a
King-like leader? Where India, without a Gandhi, South Africa without a
Mandela, Russia without a Sakharov? For that matter, where would the United
States be without a Washington, Jefferson, Franklin and the rest? All of
these succeeded as leaders because those in their movements chose to follow.
Other individuals, lost to history, claimed leadership and were rejected.
Message Discipline is behind much of the success of the GOP. Memos
with “talking points” issue forth from the offices of Karl Rove and Dick
Cheney, with clear and simple messages that are heard, incessantly, in the
echo chambers of right-wing talk radio and right-wing punditry. In contrast,
the left speaks with a thousand tongues, with worthy causes spread all over
the political landscape, and with factions, that should be allies, fighting
amongst themselves for a place at the podium. Witness the Washington Mall
peace rallies, where we hear messages of gay pride, reproductive freedom,
animal liberation, save the rain forests, abolish the death penalty, and, oh
yes, end the war. All these are commendable causes, and all these are also
wedge issues that fracture the coalition, to the delight of the right, which
therein gains an opportunity to divide and conquer.
To the public at large, a thousand messages equate with no message, and a
validation of the tiresome right-wing criticism that “the left has no new
ideas.”
The essential message of the resistance movement must be simple, clear, with
few elements, and comprehensive enough to encompass a broad coalition of
citizens, who may differ on particular issues: liberals, progressives, the
religious, the secular, moderate Republicans, conservatives, libertarians.
To the religious, ask “What would Jesus Do?” (I.e., promote peace and
charity, and condemn wealth and hypocrisy). To “establishment” Republicans
and their followers, “What is the supreme object of your loyalty? A party? A
man who happens to be President” or your country and its laws and Constitution?" And to citizens in general: “This
country belongs to 'We the People of the United States,' and we want it
back!”
If these few and simple messages are repeated, over and over, the public
might at last pay attention, and the resistance movement might achieve
self-identity and grow into an irresistible force for reform and renewal.
In conclusion, we must pay no attention to the pundits’ proclamations
that Democratic control of Congress is “out of reach,” that impeachment is
impossible, or that claims of election fraud are groundless paranoia.. There
are live bombs in the basement of The
House of Bush – scandals, crimes, betrayals, treachery, even treason. Any
one of these potentially explosive issues might, at any time, go off and
bring down the entire wretched structure. Or they might all be defused, as a
long night of despotism falls upon our republic. We can be confident only of
this much: the present trends will not continue, and we must expect and be
prepared to deal intelligently with the unexpected.
We Americans are not an evil people. Woefully ignorant at times, and short
on political sales-resistance. But when we sense that we’ve been swindled
and lied to, watch out! Our country was born in rebellion against
tyranny. We have a Constitution and we have a tradition of liberty and the
rule of law. We have vivid memories of a short time ago when we lived in a
country that was both prosperous and free.
But neither were the Germans or the Russians fundamentally evil people. Yet
they succumbed to evil regimes. The Germans had to be liberated at
horrendous cost. After seventy long years, the various nationalities of the
Soviet Union threw out their oppressors. We may suffer the fate of the
Germans – there are no guarantees. Or perhaps “the Old World” will come to
the rescue of the New,” just as we came to their rescue in the century just
past.
Far better that we accomplish our own liberation and renewal. For only the
American people can restore the honor of the United States of America.
Copyright 2006 by Ernest Partridge
Ernest Partridge's Internet Publications
Conscience of a Progressive:
A book
in progress.
Partridge's Scholarly Publications. (The Online Gadfly)
Dr. Ernest Partridge is a consultant, writer and lecturer in the field
of Environmental Ethics and Public Policy. He has taught Philosophy at
the University of California, and in Utah, Colorado and Wisconsin. He
publishes the website, "The Online
Gadfly" and co-edits the progressive website,
"The Crisis Papers".
His e-mail is: gadfly@igc.org .
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